Predictive Analysis

Match-Up Lab

Pre-match analysis powered by rating models, historical head-to-head records, and contextual signals.

Pick a Match-Up

Choose any two teams and the rating model will compute win, draw, and loss probabilities along with expected goals.

Israel
43.4% win probability
Predicted winner
26.2%
Honours shared
Draw chance
1.15 - 1.43
Model goals (home - away)
Expected score
2.6
Over 2.5: 48%
Total goals

Albania

1395#109
UEFA
VS

Israel

1415#91
UEFA
Venue
Context

Rating-Based Prediction

WFS predictor · expected score + venue adjustment · drawn from full historical performance

30.4% 26.2% 43.4%
ALB
ISR
20
Rating Gap
1.15
Exp. Goals ALB
1.43
Exp. Goals ISR
56.6%
ALB No Defeat
2.6
Exp. Total Goals

Key Factors

Rating-model adjustments and contextual signals that could influence the outcome

H2H Dominance 5W-2W

Israel hold the historical edge: 5W-0D-2L across 7 meetings.

Tournament Pedigree 1963

Both teams are major tournament winners. Albania's most recent title: 1946. Israel's most recent title: 1963.

Goal Patterns 2.6 xG

Combined avg of 2.44 goals per game. Expected total for this match: 2.6 (Over 2.5 probability: 48%).

Rating Gap 20 pts

Israel hold a 20-point rating edge: roughly 2.9% extra win probability on ratings alone.

Recent Form 5W/5W

Both teams are evenly matched in recent form: Albania 5/10, Israel 5/10. A closely contested match is expected.

Peak Rating 1502

Israel peaked at 1502 (in 1974); Albania peaked at 1442 (in 2025). Israel hold the higher all-time ceiling.

AI Match-Up Evaluation

Sign in to unlock the AI-generated match-up evaluation, predicted winner and editorial verdict.

Head-to-Head Record

7 meeting(s) · 2016-2026

2
ALB Win
0
Draws
5
ISR Win
6
Goals For
10
Goals Against
Last 10 H2H
← most recent

Comparative Profile

Era-aware metrics use only games from the last 10 years.

Era
106
Games Played
89
37.7%
Win %
37.1%
1.08
Goals Per Game
1.53
1.16
Goals Against / Game
1.71
36.8%
Clean Sheet %
19.1%
39.6%
Failed to Score %
24.7%
9.4%
Goalless Draws %
3.4%
All-Time / Lifetime
1,395
Current Rating
1,415
#109
World Ranking
#91
49.5%
Win as Favourite
60.0%
19.7%
Win as Underdog
21.9%
5
Longest Win Streak
7
8
Longest Unbeaten Run
9
1442 (2025)
Peak Rating
1502 (1974)
0W-0L
Penalty Shootouts
1W-1L

Rating Trajectory (Last 2 Years)

Both teams' rating lines overlaid · convergence / divergence analysis

Rolling Win Rate (20-Game Window)

Rolling win rate comparison · which team is in better current form?

Scenario Modeller

Adjust venue and rating parameters to see how the prediction changes in real time.

30.4% 26.2% 43.4%

Adjust parameters above to see real-time probability changes

Recent Meetings

A 03 Jun 26 AWAY
0 - 1
Friendly
H 24 Sep 22 AWAY
2 - 1
UEFA Nations League
A 10 Jun 22 AWAY
1 - 2
UEFA Nations League
H 14 Oct 18 AWAY
2 - 0
UEFA Nations League
H 07 Sep 18 AWAY
1 - 0
UEFA Nations League
A 11 Jun 17 AWAY
0 - 3
FIFA World Cup
A 12 Nov 16 AWAY
0 - 3
FIFA World Cup

If they play 100 times

Scoreline distribution from the WFS predictor. Each cell shows how often that score would occur out of 100 simulated games: amber for home wins, slate for draws, violet for away wins.

Most likely scorelines
1 - 1
12.5%
0 - 1
10.8%
1 - 2
8.9%
1 - 0
8.7%
0 - 2
7.8%
0 - 0
7.6%