Volatility Analysis

Rating Earthquakes

Some games shake the rankings. The biggest single-game rating swings in 150 years of football - seismic moments that rewrote the form book.

56
Combined rating change
Largest swing
0
Magnitude 6 (75+ pts)
Mega quakes
0
Magnitude 5 (50-75 pts)
Severe quakes
50,957
With rating data
Total games

The Rating Richter Scale

How often does each magnitude of rating swing actually happen? Most games are tremors - true earthquakes are rare.

1
Tremor 0-10 pts 70.69% of games
2
Minor 10-20 pts 28.37% of games
3
Moderate 20-25 pts 0.93% of games
4
Strong 25-30 pts 0.02% of games
5
Severe 30-35 pts 0.00% of games
6
Mega 40+ pts 0.00% of games

All-Time Biggest Rating Swings

Games that caused the largest combined rating change. Winner's gain plus loser's loss.

4.6
0-6
Oceania Nations Cup 27 Oct 1996
1523 → 1495 -28
1451 → 1478 +28

Australia made the long trip to Papeete count in emphatic fashion, racing into a 5-0 lead by half-time before completing a 6-0 demolition of Tahiti in the first leg of the Oceania Nations Cup final. The visitors were ruthless from the outset, turning the match into a one-sided contest long before the interval and effectively settling the tie in the opening 45 minutes. Tahiti, buoyed by home support, were left chasing shadows against a far more powerful Australian side that controlled the game in every area. With the second leg still to come, Australia had already built an unassailable cushion and underlined the gulf between the region's leading nations and the rest of the field.

4.4
0-4
FIFA World Cup 11 Jun 2013
1470 → 1443 -27
1344 → 1371 +27

Denmark were left reeling in Copenhagen as Armenia produced a result few had seen coming, racing into a 2-0 lead by half-time before finishing the job with two more goals after the break. The hosts, expected to control the Group 2 qualifier, were instead repeatedly punished by a disciplined Armenian side that played with confidence, pace and ruthless efficiency in transition. The scoreline reflected not just Denmark's defensive collapse but also Armenia's composure in front of goal, as they took advantage of every opening and never allowed the home side a route back into the contest. A 4-0 away win in a World Cup qualifier was a major statement for Armenia and a damaging setback for Denmark's qualification hopes. It stood as one of the standout results of the European qualifying campaign, remarkable for both the margin and the manner in which the visitors controlled the match.

4.3
1-7
FIFA World Cup 08 Jul 2014
1641 → 1614 -27
1634 → 1661 +27

Germany tore Brazil apart in Belo Horizonte, racing into a 5-0 lead by half-time in a semi-final that quickly became one of the most extraordinary matches in World Cup history. Thomas Müller opened the scoring early, then Miroslav Klose, Toni Kroos and Sami Khedira piled on the damage before the interval, with Brazil left shell-shocked and unable to stem the tide. The second half brought no real recovery for the hosts, as Germany continued to control the game and added two more through André Schürrle, while Oscar's late consolation merely softened the scale of the humiliation. The 7-1 scoreline stunned the football world, ended Brazil's hopes of a home final, and became a defining reference point for both German ruthlessness and Brazilian heartbreak. Germany advanced to the final in emphatic fashion, while Brazil were left to confront one of the darkest nights in their footballing history.

4.2
0-5
CONCACAF Gold Cup 26 Jul 2009
1586 → 1560 -26
1537 → 1563 +26

Mexico swept past the United States 5-0 in the 2009 CONCACAF Gold Cup final at East Rutherford, turning a tense goalless first half into a one-sided demolition after the break. The match stayed level at 0-0 through half-time, but Mexico seized control with a burst of goals that left the home crowd stunned and the USA chasing shadows. With the scoreline widening rapidly, the final became a showcase of Mexico's attacking sharpness and composure in the decisive moments. The result delivered Mexico the Gold Cup title in emphatic fashion and stood as one of the most lopsided finals in the tournament's history.

4.2
0-3
FIFA World Cup 06 Sep 2008
1508 → 1482 -26
1398 → 1424 +26

Romania were left reeling in Cluj-Napoca as Lithuania produced one of the more striking results of the 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifying campaign, taking a 1-0 lead into half-time before running out emphatic 3-0 winners. The visitors stayed compact, disciplined and dangerous on the break, and once they had the first goal they were able to control the match’s rhythm and frustrate the home side. Romania, expected to impose themselves on home soil, never found a way back into the contest and were punished again as the second half wore on. The result was a major setback for Romania’s qualifying hopes and a rare, memorable away triumph for Lithuania in a competitive fixture of this scale.

4.1
0-2
FIFA World Cup 20 Nov 2022
1509 → 1484 -26
1460 → 1486 +26

Ecuador made the perfect start to the 2022 FIFA World Cup, beating hosts Qatar 2-0 in the tournament opener at Al Khawr. Enner Valencia struck twice in the first half, first from the penalty spot and then with a powerful header, to put Gustavo Alfaro's side in command before the break. Qatar struggled to settle in front of a partisan crowd and rarely looked capable of mounting a comeback against an organised Ecuadorian defence. The result gave Ecuador an ideal platform in Group A, while Qatar became the first host nation to lose the opening match of a World Cup. It was a composed, professional performance from Ecuador and a sobering start to the finals for the hosts.

4.1
0-3
FIFA World Cup 31 Mar 2004
1481 → 1455 -25
1411 → 1436 +25

Uruguay were left reeling in Montevideo as Venezuela produced one of the most memorable results in their World Cup qualifying history, leading 1-0 at half-time before pulling away to a 3-0 away win. The visitors took control with a disciplined, counterattacking display and then made the scoreline emphatic after the interval, silencing the home crowd and exposing Uruguay's fragility on the night. For Venezuela, it was a landmark performance that underlined their growing competitiveness in CONMEBOL qualifying and delivered a rare statement victory on hostile soil. For Uruguay, the defeat was a damaging setback at home, the sort of result that can reshape a qualification campaign and intensify scrutiny on both players and staff.

4.0
2-5
FIFA World Cup 15 Oct 2013
1418 → 1393 -25
1332 → 1358 +25

Montenegro entered the World Cup qualifier in Podgorica expecting to protect home turf, but instead they were left chasing the game after Moldova struck before half-time and never let go of the momentum. The visitors carried a 1-0 lead into the break, then punished Montenegro again after the restart as the match opened up into a remarkable seven-goal contest. Montenegro did manage to score twice, but every time they threatened a comeback Moldova answered with greater sharpness and composure in front of goal. The 5-2 result stood out as a major away upset in qualifying, a night when Moldova made the most of their chances and Montenegro paid dearly for defensive lapses. For the hosts, it was a damaging home defeat; for Moldova, it was a rare and memorable statement victory on the road in FIFA World Cup qualifying.

4.0
0-3
FIFA World Cup 04 Jul 1998
1618 → 1593 -25
1550 → 1575 +25

Croatia produced one of the shocks of the 1998 World Cup by dismantling Germany 3-0 in Lyon to reach the semi-finals in their first appearance at the tournament. The breakthrough came before half-time, and Germany's task became even harder after the interval when Christian Wörns was sent off, leaving the 1990 champions exposed against Croatia's pace and precision. Davor Šuker, already the tournament's leading scorer, added the second and then effectively sealed the result as Croatia turned the match into a statement performance. The third goal underlined the scale of the upset, with Miroslav Blažević's side punishing a German team that had been expected to go deep into the competition. It was a landmark night for Croatian football and a chastening exit for Germany, whose quest to add another World Cup crown ended abruptly in Lyon.

4.0
5-1
Africa Cup of Nations 19 Nov 1965
1251 → 1276 +25
1395 → 1370 -25

Senegal made a commanding statement in their 1965 Africa Cup of Nations Group 1 opener, racing to a 2-1 lead by half-time before pulling away to win 5-1 in Tunis. On neutral ground, the Senegalese side turned a competitive first half into a one-sided finish, showing the attacking edge that would make them one of the tournament's most eye-catching teams. Ethiopia were left chasing the game after the interval as Senegal added three more goals to put the result beyond doubt. The scoreline reflected a decisive second-half surge and a clear gulf in momentum, with Senegal taking full control after the break. It was the kind of emphatic group-stage win that strengthened their position early in the competition and underlined their credentials in African football's growing continental showcase.

4.0
1-5
FIFA World Cup 07 Mar 1954
1399 → 1374 -25
1244 → 1269 +25

In Tokyo, South Korea turned a tight opening into a commanding 5-1 victory over Japan in their 1954 FIFA World Cup qualifying meeting. Japan actually led at the break in a lively first half, but South Korea responded with a far more ruthless second-half display to flip the match decisively. The visitors’ attack found repeated openings after halftime, and the margin of victory quickly grew beyond Japan’s reach. It was a statement result in the early years of Asian World Cup qualifying, underlining South Korea’s superiority on the day and leaving Japan with a heavy defeat to absorb at home. The scoreline tells the story of a match that changed sharply after the interval, with South Korea finishing far stronger and far more clinical than their hosts.

4.0
0-3
FIFA World Cup 12 Jul 2014
1614 → 1589 -25
1608 → 1633 +25

Brazil's bid to salvage some pride after their crushing semi-final collapse only got worse in Brasília, where the Netherlands beat them 3-0 to take third place at the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Louis van Gaal's side struck early and never let go of control, with Robin van Persie converting a penalty inside the opening minutes before Daley Blind added a second before half-time. The hosts, still reeling from the 7-1 humiliation by Germany, again looked fragile and short of answers, while the Dutch were organised, efficient and content to punish every lapse. Georginio Wijnaldum added a late third to complete a comfortable victory and underline the contrast between a team finishing the tournament with authority and a host nation left to confront one of the darkest weeks in its football history.

The Seismograph

Every notable game's combined rating change, plotted chronologically. Spikes mark seismic moments. Drag the slider to navigate eras.

Upset (lower-rated team won) Expected (favourite over-performed) Normal variation

Most Volatile Teams

1Solomon Islands
σ 11.5
2Papua New Guinea
σ 10.9
3Belize
σ 10.9
4Vanuatu
σ 10.8
5New Caledonia
σ 10.8
6Tahiti
σ 10.7
7Saint Kitts and Nevis
σ 10.6
8Curaçao
σ 10.6
9Saint Lucia
σ 10.5
10Dominican Republic
σ 10.5

Most Stable Teams

1San Marino
σ 4.3
2Andorra
σ 5.3
3Liechtenstein
σ 6.1
4Malta
σ 6.4
5Luxembourg
σ 6.6
6Estonia
σ 7.0
7Gibraltar
σ 7.0
8Somalia
σ 7.1
9Seychelles
σ 7.2
10England
σ 7.3

Rating Impact by Tournament Stage

Average combined rating change by competition phase. K-factor weighting makes deep knockout games the highest-impact moments.