Volatility Analysis

Rating Earthquakes

Some games shake the rankings. The biggest single-game rating swings in 150 years of football - seismic moments that rewrote the form book.

56
Combined rating change
Largest swing
0
Magnitude 6 (75+ pts)
Mega quakes
0
Magnitude 5 (50-75 pts)
Severe quakes
50,736
With rating data
Total games

The Rating Richter Scale

How often does each magnitude of rating swing actually happen? Most games are tremors - true earthquakes are rare.

1
Tremor 0-10 pts 70.65% of games
2
Minor 10-20 pts 28.41% of games
3
Moderate 20-25 pts 0.92% of games
4
Strong 25-30 pts 0.02% of games
5
Severe 30-35 pts 0.00% of games
6
Mega 40+ pts 0.00% of games

All-Time Biggest Rating Swings

Games that caused the largest combined rating change. Winner's gain plus loser's loss.

4.6
Tahiti
0-6
Australia
Oceania Nations Cup 27 Oct 1996
1524 → 1496 -28
1451 → 1478 +28
4.4
Denmark
0-4
Armenia
FIFA World Cup 11 Jun 2013
1470 → 1443 -27
1344 → 1371 +27
4.3
Brazil
1-7
Germany
FIFA World Cup 08 Jul 2014
1641 → 1614 -27
1634 → 1661 +27
4.2
USA
0-5
Mexico
CONCACAF Gold Cup 26 Jul 2009
1586 → 1560 -26
1537 → 1563 +26
4.2
Romania
0-3
Lithuania
FIFA World Cup 06 Sep 2008
1508 → 1482 -26
1398 → 1424 +26
4.1
Qatar
0-2
Ecuador
FIFA World Cup 20 Nov 2022
1509 → 1484 -26
1460 → 1486 +26
4.1
Uruguay
0-3
Venezuela
FIFA World Cup 31 Mar 2004
1481 → 1455 -25
1411 → 1436 +25
4.0
Montenegro
2-5
Moldova
FIFA World Cup 15 Oct 2013
1418 → 1393 -25
1332 → 1358 +25
4.0
Germany
0-3
Croatia
FIFA World Cup 04 Jul 1998
1618 → 1593 -25
1550 → 1575 +25
4.0
Senegal
5-1
Ethiopia
Africa Cup of Nations 19 Nov 1965
1251 → 1276 +25
1395 → 1370 -25
4.0
Japan
1-5
South Korea
FIFA World Cup 07 Mar 1954
1399 → 1374 -25
1244 → 1269 +25
4.0
Brazil
0-3
Netherlands
FIFA World Cup 12 Jul 2014
1614 → 1589 -25
1608 → 1633 +25

The Seismograph

Every notable game's combined rating change, plotted chronologically. Spikes mark seismic moments. Drag the slider to navigate eras.

Upset (lower-rated team won) Expected (favourite over-performed) Normal variation

Most Volatile Teams

1Solomon Islands
σ 11.5
2Belize
σ 10.9
3Papua New Guinea
σ 10.9
4Vanuatu
σ 10.9
5New Caledonia
σ 10.8
6Tahiti
σ 10.8
7Curaçao
σ 10.6
8Saint Kitts and Nevis
σ 10.6
9Saint Lucia
σ 10.5
10Dominican Republic
σ 10.4

Most Stable Teams

1San Marino
σ 4.3
2Andorra
σ 5.3
3Liechtenstein
σ 6.1
4Malta
σ 6.3
5Luxembourg
σ 6.6
6Gibraltar
σ 6.8
7Estonia
σ 6.9
8Somalia
σ 7.1
9Seychelles
σ 7.2
10England
σ 7.3

Rating Impact by Tournament Stage

Average combined rating change by competition phase. K-factor weighting makes deep knockout games the highest-impact moments.