The Crystal Ball
How well does the WFS predictor actually predict? Every game since 1980, scored against our pre-game forecast.
54.3%
Predicted W/D/L matched actual
Outright correct58.4%
Higher-rated team avoided defeat
Favourite correct0.167
Lower = better calibrated
Brier score38,776
Every historical prediction
Backtested gamesModel Calibration
When the model predicts a 60% chance, does the favourite really win 60% of the time? Perfect calibration follows the diagonal. The shaded band is the Wilson 95% interval.
Accuracy by Decade
How model accuracy has shifted across eras. More games per team in the modern era means stronger ratings and sharper predictions.
Accuracy by Rating Gap
Confidence scales with the rating delta. Narrow gaps are coin-flips; wide gaps are near-certain calls.
Accuracy by Tournament Type
The Biggest Upsets
Games where the model gave the eventual winner the lowest pre-game probability. The percentage badge is what the model thought of their chances.
